MM#352--13 Keys and Some Bad News...

0:07 Welcome to the Theory to Action podcast, where we examine the timeless treasures of wisdom from the great books in less time, to help you take action immediately and ultimately to create and lead a flourishing life. Now here's your host, david Kaiser. Hello, I am David and welcome back to another Mojo Minute, and I am back after a refreshing vacation, ready to tackle the next couple months, as we are in the stretch run of the 2024 presidential election season and that traditional presidential campaign season usually begins after Labor Day.

0:48 But boy, oh boy, does it not seem like it has been going forever, holy smokes. Now, over the past week or two since I've been off, we have had roughly three emerging and compelling storylines that have unfolded during this election season. First well-known presidential predictor and author, alan Lichtman, has given us conservatives some very bad news. He is predicting that Kamala Harris will win the presidency against Donald Trump and that we will see our first woman president.

1:35 Not that I'm against women president, but we could have certainly predicted, or we could have certainly voted in, a better first woman president than Kamala Harris. But that remains to be seen. They still have to cast the votes. No votes have been cast so far, so Alan Lichtman is putting himself out on a limb, as he always does every four years. Now you might be saying who cares what that guy thinks? Alan Lichtman is a well-known liberal. He is a professor of history at American university in 90% Washington DC, so who cares what he thinks?

2:20 In fact, most of you are probably saying I don't even know who that guy is or what he's even talking about, to which I should say that just means that you have a life and I do not. Alan Lichtman is the author of the infamous book within political circle or political science circles, the 13 keys to the white house. And why that's important for you to know is because, since 1984, alan Lichtman has predicted every presidential election correctly, meaning he nails it each and every time.

3:02 So, yes, I know this will be disappointing to conservatives and, in fact, to anyone who loves the country, because to elect Kamala Harris as the next president of the United States would be an absolute travesty. There is no two ways about it, and I'm not sure we will survive as a country for another four years on the path that we are currently on. Now we are going to dive into this book, and it's 13 keys, so you have a better understanding of it, cause that's what we do here. Um, and he released a uh, he released a full 60 minute video on YouTube about his prediction over the weekend, and we'll give you some details on that, but we're going to give you also the Cliff Notes version, or should I say the Academy Review version, so you don't have to waste 60 minutes of your life and you are welcome for that.

4:02 You are welcome for that. So now the second compelling and emerging storyline that has unfolded during this election season is Trump has incurred several famous Democrats who have endorsed him over the past two weeks and we're going to examine does that help or hurt him in certain states. And the third and final compelling storyline that has emerged is Trump consistently has an overvote versus the polling, and that's become apparent as we've studied it from 2016 to 2020.

4:55 What does that portend for us going into November 2024? And how will he do compared to that polling? So we have three compelling storylines. And to the overvote of Trump in 16 and 20 versus Alan Lichtman's prediction that he will fail in winning the presidency back again. So we're going to table the last two. We're going to table the overvote for Trump to the presidency into bite-sized nuggets of political wisdom and, most importantly, because we have a very important debate tonight at least I think so that could shake up the whole race and break a log jam of both candidates running neck and neck, even after Joe Biden bailed out some 45 days ago.

6:03 So with all that, let's talk about our book of the day, the 13 keys to the white house Again. It was developed by American historian and professor Alan Lickman in collaboration with a Russian geophysicist of Vladimir Keles Borok, in 1981. Allen uses the prediction system, which consists of 13 true-false statements that he calls keys, that assess various factors related to the political and economic landscape preceding a presidential election and economic landscape preceding a presidential election. Now, the keys cover areas such as the incumbent party's mandate, economic conditions, social unrest, scandals, foreign policy successes or failures and the charisma of the candidates.

6:51 And here's where it gets good. If six or more of the keys are false, allen's prediction system says that the challenging party candidate will win the election. If five or fewer are false, it predicts the incumbent party will retain the White House, in this case the Democrats, since they are the incumbent party this year. Now Lichtman argues that this system proves American voters select their president based on the performance of the party holding the White House, rather than the campaign events or strategies or pundits. Now it has really proved itself worth noting because, like I said, he has gotten all the elections since 1984 correct.

7:38 In fact, let's go to the book to hear from Alan himself. And, by the way, I'm reading from the 1990 version of the book because that was the version I picked up some years ago when studying this prediction system. And the only reason I have this book is because I told you guys I was a political junkie, so therefore I have to have this book is because I told you guys I was a political junkie, so therefore I have to have this book on my bookshelf. Gone to the book for our opening poll quote. In the spring of 1988, when Vice President George Bush trailed Michael Dukakis by double digits in the polls, the pundits who derided Bush as an unelectable wimp had history on their side.

8:23 No sitting vice president, they pointed out, had won the White House since Martin Van Buren's victory 152 years earlier. Bush's negative ratings in the polls were among the highest of any presidential candidate in history by a wide margin. The public thought the country was on the wrong track when Dukakis' lead ballooned to 17 percentage points. After the Democrat convention in July, another historical lesson haunted the vice president. No candidate had ever come back from so large a deficit in the summer of the election year to triumph in November. Bush certainly wasn't the one to do so. Commenters warned as they all but anointed the Massachusetts governor president of the United States.

9:11 Then a startling transformation supposedly occurred that would reverse the historical odds. Almost overnight, a new George Bush emerged With a single speech at the Republican convention in New Orleans. The previous inarticulate candidate acquired a newfound eloquence thanks largely insiders observed to the skills of speechwriter Peggy Noonan. Bush then embarked on a masterful if brutal campaign of negative attacks on his opponent, devised by hardball political strategist Lee Atwater and executed by ad man Roger Ailes, with unwitting assist from a furloughed murderer named Willie Horton in the float sim and jetsam of Boston Harbor.

9:58 In three short months, the once wishy-washy vice president overtook the suddenly ineffectual and irredeemably liberal Dukakis, trouncing him on Election Day by a margin of 8 percentage points. That, to hear the pundits tell it, is the short story of the 1988 election. It makes for a good tale repl, with behind the scenes, manipulation, a dramatic reversal and a grim overriding moral. That negative morale, that negative campaigning does indeed work. Sure to reinforce the disillusion with which many Americans already view the electoral process.

10:40 So wow, alan Lichtman predicted in May of 1988 that the election would hinge upon Reagan's handling of the country's direction and his vice president at the time, george HW Bush Bush 41, would be elected, and it's not based on that evaluation and not not anything to do with the campaign season and the rollercoaster effect therein. Let's continue with the book. As compelling as that account may be, it is dead wrong.

11:21 George Bush did not come from behind to snatch victory from the Democrats in 1988. Michael Dukakis did not blow an election that was within his party's grasp. The American public did not succumb to the manipulation of cynical, media-savvy political strategists or influence of sound bites in television images, and history has not been vanquished. In choosing George Bush to be the 41st president of the United States, the electorate responded to identifiable social, political issues and economic circumstances in a pragmatic and clearly predictable manner, a manner consistent with the historical pattern of presidential election results since Republicans and Democrats emerged as the two major parties in our modern political system a century and a third ago.

12:14 Moreover, the outcome of the 1988 election was apparent long before Peggy Noonan or Willie Horton entered the picture. In an article prepared in March and published in the May 1988 issue of the Washingtonian magazine, when Michael Dukakis was 12 points ahead in the polls and climbing, we wrote this. In the polls and climbing we wrote this quote barring a suddenly stalled economy and a major disaster between now and election day, george Bush is a shoe-in for the presidency, no matter who winds up as the Democratic nominee. So you have to give it to Alan Lichtman.

12:56 He does put himself out on a limb and he does so with what he calls our 13 substantial keys and in fact he has these keys in their narrow versions and we're going to go through all 13 so you have a better understanding of them, because this is all quite fascinating. And in fact, if you want to check out how Allen's keys have been used all the way back to the 1860 election and onward and how his prediction system fared through those election, there's actually a good Wikipedia page, fantastic Wikipedia page that breaks down all this for you and the 13 keys and how each are graded out, with tables and footnotes.

13:43 It's quite extensive. I was very surprised when I researched it and it has helped me over the years to understand this prediction system much, much better. Now all of this is kind of in the weeds and behind the scenes, so to speak, and most likely you just want to know what did he say about the election less than 60 days from now and with early voting just starting in a couple weeks and with a very important debate tonight, what does Alan Lichtman say night? What does Alan Lichtman say?

14:24 Well, let me sum up what Alan's hour-long YouTube video for you over the weekend shared and how he grades out this year's election. Again, this system grades out the incumbent party so this would be the Democrats and how Alan is grading these keys for the incumbent party. So it's a binary choice, true or false. And actually, let's go back to the book so we understand how Alan is actually wording each of these 13 phrases to give the true or false statements. Go into the book the 13 keys to the presidency. The keys to the presidency are stated as conditions that favor the reelection of the incumbent party.

15:08 When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins. So, to keep it straight, the challenging party is the GOP under Donald Trump and the incumbent party is the Democrats under newly anointed Democratic nominee. Vice President Kamala Harris. Vice President Kamala Harris. Now I will read very quickly each key all 13, and how Allen is grading that particular key.

15:53 So the 13 keys are number one party mandate After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Allen grades this as false. The second key, the contest key. There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. No serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Now, I thought this certainly would have been false because of what happened with the transfer of Kamala Harris into the Democratic nominee.

16:37 But I had to read through this actual definition. That's why I think it's important. Key number two there is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. So the fact that Harris did not have to fight through that Democratic nomination process in the primaries, she was just anointed, that actually flips this key to true. There was no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. So one and one right now. Key number three incumbency. The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

17:19 This is very straightforward. Obviously that is false. Joe Biden is the current sitting vice president. So Kamala Harris does not get a true statement there. It is false. So right now we have two falses and one true, and the conservatives, like myself, are cheering. Key number four third party. There is no significant third party or independent campaign. That is, in fact, true. Robert F Kennedy dropped out, suspended his campaign and is asking everyone of his supporters to as he's endorsed Donald Trump supporters to as he's endorsed Donald Trump.

18:05 But this key, for this sake, under this definition, is in fact true. So now we have two true, if I could speak, two true for the Democrats and two false for the Republicans. Now we move on to the economy. Short-term economy the economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Boy, I really struggled with this one and I understand how he grades this statement. But, man, I mean the economy has to be in recession but based on the economic results from the Bureau of Labor Statistics right now we are not in a definition of a recession.

18:46 So in fact, that key is turned true. So now we have three true and two false and two false. Key number six long-term economy real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Alan Lichtman grades that out as true. I'm going to take his word for it, because that's a lot of research that I don't have time to do, of research that I don't have time to do. And I'm guessing that's probably true because the previous two terms Trump did have economic growth but the COVID recession dropped that growth down and Joe Biden has or Kamala Harris and the Democrats have benefited from the V-shaped rebound that we sustained in 2022 and at least came on until they passed all the inflation, which has taken away all that, but it was still a V-shaped rebound that Biden and company have taken advantage of, actually have been a beneficiary of more so taken advantage of, actually have been a beneficiary of more so.

20:02 So the strong long-term key, or the strong long-term economy key, is true. So right now, we have four true and two false. Again, if we get six false, that flips to the challenger as winning the presidency. It takes five or fewer falses for the incumbent to retain. Right now, we have four true and two false. Moving on to the next key, that would be key number seven policy change. The incumbent administration affects major challenges in national policy.

20:45 I would or alan lickman provides that as true. He says and this is subjective but he says that the build Back Better plan, the reversal of Trump's administration, executive orders and other substantial social legislation gives this key a true statement and, looking back, he even gave a true statement for Donald Trump for the 2020 election because of major tax reforms and numerous executive orders withdrawing the US from major international treaties and reversing Obamacare's environmental protections.

21:30 So Alan Lichtman has been consistent on this key. It seems subjective but in fact where how he grades this out seems to be quite objective when he defines this statement as the incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. So that makes the true statements five to two. Five true statements to two false statements out of 13. Key number eight social unrest.

22:11 There is no sustained social unrest during the term and that is indeed true. We have not had anything like the Black Lives Matter riots last, in 2019 or 2020 over the George Floyd murders, and we did not have. Now we have had Palestinian protests at major college campuses. But Alan Lichtman has been consistent on that key. That key, the only time it's been false was under Donald Trump, and all the remaining times there has been no social unrest.

22:54 He even graded out in 1992 the race riots in LA, where they had the horrible race riots after the Rodney King beating, riots in LA, where they had the horrible race riots after the Rodney King beating. He even had that key as being true to give support to George Bush. So he seems to be objective on this, this no social unrest key. So that would provide six keys true and two false so far. Key number nine the administration.

23:35 The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal and Alan Lichtman grades that as true, even though boy Hunter Biden is is just been terrible. But the way Alan views this is it does not affect the president. He goes all the way, he gives an example, going all the way back to Jimmy Carter, and Jimmy Carter's brother, who evidently was a reprobate, didn't even know about that. But evidently all these things do not. If it does not touch the president, then he's unaffected by it. He or she is unaffected by it in the incumbent party.

24:15 Now he did give a false statement for last year because trump was impeached for pressuring the government of ukraine to investigate joe biden, and then the Stormy Daniels payment scandal. Now both of those are coming back to be in fact false accusations. They were terribly reported and the truth is coming out. But you can see where Alan Lichtman grades these out as a false statement and then over time they essentially do become false. So some of these keys I understand they can be subjective.

25:01 Anyhow, I'm going to stay off my rant and just stay grounded to these keys. So key number nine the scandal key the incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. That is, in fact, true. So now we have seven true keys and two false keys and two false keys. Now we're going to move on to key number 10, foreign military failure. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. In fact, we're going to table that one for now and we are going to, in fact we're going to table the next two Key number 10, the foreign military failure the incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs and key number 11, foreign military success.

26:05 The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Both of those we are going to table for now because they are subject to change based on what possibly could happen here in the remaining two months. Possibly could happen here in the remaining two months. So if we move on tabling keys 10 and 11, moving on to key number 12, incumbent charisma the incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero, and certainly that is false. Certainly that is false. Kamala Harris is not a inspiring or charismatic person and not a national hero, despite whatever the Democrats say about her, and Alan Lichtman does agree with that.

26:59 That is false. So right now, as we stand, we have eight true statements and three false statements, and our last key for now, until we go back and get the two table keys, is the challenger charisma. The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. That is in fact true. Charismatic or a national hero? That is in fact true, despite what everybody on the right says, that Donald Trump is charismatic and a national hero. He is not. He is just the Republican nominee. He certainly was very popular with the Apprentice Show, but he's not charismatic and he is not a national hero.

27:47 We have to be objective about that. So, with that as we stand right now, we have nine true statements for the incumbent party and three false statements. That is why Alan Lichtman is confident to say that, despite whatever happens on keys 10 and 11, that Kamala Harris will be the first woman president of the United States and Donald Trump will fail in his retention of winning back the presidency. Let's go back to foreign policy, military failure, key number 10 and key number 11.

28:27 Lichtman says for key number 10, likely could be false, reason being that Biden's response to the war in Gaza has thus far been a major foreign policy failure. But it could turn true if Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza or could be confirmed false. If media coverage of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan persists, I'm going to say that that is probably going to remain false because I think Trump is going to bring that up repeatedly in the debate tonight as we air this.

29:09 So, even if we turn that one false, that gives the challenging party, the Republican Party, four false keys. And Alan Lichtman says, on key number 11, a foreign military success, the incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Lichtman says and this is quite controversial, but again, this is how he predicts these things he says that Biden's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a major foreign policy success.

29:51 I just have a hard time believing that and the reason is this is probably one of the keys that I have the biggest argument on. The biggest argument on, because if you look back over the keys and the history of how Lichtman regards these, he says that in 2020, donald Trump does not get a true statement for that, despite what he did in Syria, despite what he did with killing of Soleimani and despite what he did getting us out of those major foreign policy debacles.

30:32 So, alan Lichtman, it seems to be pretty subjective on key number 11, on whether it's foreign policy and military successes. So, to wrap up all of those keys, since this is a podcast and it would have been much easier to do this on video than over the air, over audible, we hear you. We hear you loud and clear. So stay tuned on that front, but we're not ready to make any announcements there for video. But just stay tuned because we've got some things working in the process nine true votes or true keys, and likely four false votes or votes against the incumbent party.

31:20 And that is why Lichtman is pretty confident in his position that even if something else drastically happens in the foreign policy area, where both of those keys are turned false, it would still be an eight to five score for the incumbent party, the Democrats in this case. Remember, it takes six votes for the incumbent party to lose to the challenging party and again, this system has correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1984, including some unexpected results like Trump's victory in 2016.

32:05 You got to give it to Lickman and that year he predicted six false votes against the incumbent party, against Barack Obama and how he was running the country, and therefore Hillary Clinton was the incumbent party representative, and she lost to Donald Trump, who was the challenger, and so you got to give it to Lichtman. He's a left-leaning, very liberal professor, but he did call the 2016 election correctly. In 2020, trump's grade was seven false keys and thus he predicted that the challenging party would take control of the White House, which happened, and so you don't shoot the messenger on this one.

32:48 What I always find interesting is that the book challenges the traditional assumptions about what determines election outcomes and does indeed offer an alternative to the poll based predictions that we all stay glued to night in and night out. I believe it's considered an important resource for understanding the underlying fundamentals that drive US presidential elections, and that's why I wanted to share this book with you. I will have more to say on our next podcast this Thursday about this prediction system and especially the two keys that could determine or change Lickman's keys, but it it's not going to change his prediction.

33:34 What I will say is that there is always, always divine intervention, and Alan Lickman's prediction system could be absolutely unbeatable, even though the 20, the 20, the 2000 election is under considerable inspection, because he called the popular vote but not the electoral college, and therefore there's there's. There's a knockdown, drag out argument that you can read about all the way through the Wikipedia page. So we're not going to get in the weeds on that one. We've already got a little bit too long for a Mojo Minute, approaching 34 minutes here, but I'll have more to say about that on Thursday.

34:23 So in today's Mojo Minute, no matter how this election prediction system works or doesn't work, there's always a chance for it to be wrong. There's always a chance for it to be wrong for the first time, and even though the percentages and the predictions are completely against us conservatives, there's always divine intervention. We believe in divine intervention, though alan lichman might not like it. There's always divine intervention and, as we are fond of saying here on the podcast, let's just keep fighting the good fight and, as ronald reagan always reminded us, let's keep looking for that pony thank you for joining us.

35:08 We hope you enjoyed this Theory to Action podcast. Be sure to check out our show page at teammojoacademycom, where we have everything we discussed in this podcast, as well as other great resources. Until next time, keep getting your mojo on.